Packers XLV

Pack Couldn't Ask For a Better Scenario at Arrowhead.

Posted October 26th, 2019 @ 12:10am

So what's going against the Pack as they get set to play their fourth prime time game as the season reaches the midway point?

No Davante Adams for a fifth week, possibly no Darnell Savage and Corey Linsley, both are listed as questionable but appear likely to play. Andy Reid and the Chiefs are coming off a Thursday night game, so they've had ten days to heal and prepare for a big game against the Pack, hoping to avoid a rare three-game home losing streak. And Reid is notoriously good when he has extra time.

So what's working in the Pack's favor? The list is meatier and much more devastating for Kansas City. It starts with not having the reigning MVP and best player in the league, a guy who seems poised to be the face of the NFL for the next decade, as long as he can stay healthy.

Despite the cat and mouse game the team played as Patrick Mahomes was seen participating in practice all week, backup Matt Moore will indeed be the starter and he's not even the team's preferred backup. Moore was planning to be a scout till he got the call when Chad Henne got hurt in August. Henne's back at practice, almost healed from an ankle injury that landed on IR, but the 35 year old Moore will get one last chance at glory. He's 15-15 in his career as a starter with the Dolphins and the Panthers, with a 59% completion percentage and 46 TDs and 36 interceptions. But he's never had an arsenal of skill position players like these. More on them in a moment.

Mahomes is just one of six Chiefs starters who will miss this game and they are all important pieces. Let's start with the offensive line, where the left side is out: tackle Eric Fisher and guard Andrew Wylie. Their best two front seven players, Frank Clark and Chris Jones are out, as is nickel corner Kendall Fuller. Jones and Fuller will be replaced by unheralded rookies, a third and sixth rounder respectively.

Andy Reid is a great offensive game schemer, and with some extra time and a new challenge to morph his offense to make better use of Moore's talents, I don't doubt the Chiefs will put points on the board against the Pack. They'll try to attack the Pack's run defense with a two-pronged approach: Damien Williams and LeSean McCoy. Both will also be active in the passing game: they have 30 catches for around 250 yards between them this season.

The Chiefs also have the most dangerous group of pass catchers in the league with speedy downfield threat Sammy Watkins returning from injury and the electric Tyreek Hills fully healthy after missing most of the first five games. Reid will undoubtedly look to get the ball in these guys' hands quickly and creatively to try to negate the Pack's potent pass rush.  Then there's tight end Travis Kelce, who demands serious attention and will find one on one opportunities as Mike Pettine tries to avoid getting beat deep.

Matt Moore is not close to being Patrick Mahomes, but there's enough talent on offense to put 30 points on the board, provided the offensive line holds up. Where the Pack should roll is on offense. In KC's last game in Denver, the defense stepped up against the Broncos' muddled offense, sacking Joe Flacco nine times. The Chiefs loaded up to stop the run, with linebackers Reggie Ragland and Damien Wilson getting more snaps than usual. But Denver didn't take advantage of their lack of speed and make the cover the backs as receivers. Matt LaFleur will, he'll also be able to use his complete bag of tricks against a defense missing its two most disruptive defenders.

The strength of the unit that will take the field Sunday night is at safety, with the Honey Badger moving all over the place and rookie Juan Thornhill (the guy I had my eye on for the Pack at draft time) patrolling the free safety spot. Their corners are average: former Packer Bashaud Breeland and second year guy Charvarius Ward. Rookie Rashad Fenton fills in for Fuller and you can bet Rodgers will test him early and often.

The recipe for the Pack's offense is to run, run and run some more. Aaron Jones and Jamal Williams should combine for 35-40 carries, with Rodgers using play action to take downfield shots whenever he feels like it.

As talented as the Chiefs are on offense, even without the MVP, and as successful as Reid has been when his team has extra time to prepare, there's no reason the Packers shouldn't be able to outscore them, with those three key defensive pieces missing.

Packers 31  Chiefs 27

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Comments (9):

Let me start by saying that I don't think it's fair that the NFL is actually making the Packers have to play a road game this early in the season!

on October 26th, 2019 at 01:57am

Secondly, 598/7 will give you a ton of wins! It's almost unfathomable. How in the bleep can I get my team in on that the second half? Is it technique, luck of the draw, the great eyes on the refs or what?

on October 26th, 2019 at 02:00am


on October 26th, 2019 at 02:05am

Dave, I will leave this board now. I have been a little over the top. I will keep listening on KFAN!

on October 26th, 2019 at 12:39pm

The absence of Mahomes is an equalizer here but I rate this one a toss-up nevertheless. The Chiefs have done with their back-up situation what the Packers should do: have an experienced NFL qb. KC still has a chance with Moore or Henne which is more than we saw about the Pack when Aaron Rodgers has gone down and all we had was Hundley. After Belichick Andy Reid is the best coach in the league and one of the big "what if's" of Packers history. What if Ron Wolf had hired him to succeed Mike Holmgren in 1999 instead of letting the then Packers' assistant be grabbed by the Eagles? Think about Reid with Favre and Rodgers all these years and both his playoff and Super Bowl record and the Packers' could be much greater. With the Chiefs' injury situation the Packers do have the chance to win at a place notoriously difficult for the visitors to succeed. A 27-24 type game, either way, is what I expect.

on October 27th, 2019 at 07:19am

I'm with THC and Packer lifer, I have same score you do Davey, BUT Packers losing. I put a nice wager on it yesterday. hopefully Pack will still win , not just by 5. When they were undefeated in 2011 and I said there 1st loss would be K.C, 3 weeks before they did. they fired there coach and they won. it's just to hard to play there, Sure 12 can handle it. But not all these young receivers and other guys we have now can. Sure hope I'm wrong. I just saw the TE from Oakland go nuts, what do you think Kelce is going top do? I see it 90 yards and 2 td's. everyone thinks Reid will run the ball. He wont. he will run the same thing he always does and added in a few more wrinkles too with time to prepare. it should be entertaining. I see why the Vikings fans , watch are games more then there own, ours is a lot more fum to watch win or lose. Hope it's close and we pull it out, But Our d is very overrated, the only reason were winning is turnovers and 12 doesn't turn the ball over much and we can run a little better this year. I would love to see 23 go man to man on hill with some help sometimes and see how he holds up. If were plus 2 in turnovers every game, you win a lot of games.. we are in bottom 3rd in rushing d and passing d. 31-27 Chiefs. Go Packers

on October 27th, 2019 at 09:56am

Yeah, It doesn't look like THC is going to do a victory post. I'm guessing he ran out of thing to say. I don't believe the Pack moves on a wide out, whether it is because they like who they have or because they shouldn't have traded away Davis. The troubling thing here has been more the decline in production of the Smiths. I hear that KC got rid of the ball quickly, but not always. I'm hoping that they just need a bit of RandR, and that they can wait for it until the bye week. It was good to get Savage back, even if it didn't solve everything. Amos has still been so very good. I personally don't miss HaHa at all. This team has traveled well so far this year. I'm expecting/hoping the defense shows up with a couple picks this Sunday. Wish I could go to that game, but alas the Powerball numbers didn't work out. Since Larry posted his score for the Chargers, I will too. Probably getting cocky again, but.... 38-20 Packers.

on October 29th, 2019 at 01:30pm

Keep up the good posts Larry,always enjoy your outlook,Go Pack!!

on October 29th, 2019 at 06:54pm

Great call Dave, if he makes that field goal. you hit the score on the nuts, great win. i lost some money, but worth it. the d still looks very shaky. we need another lb badly inside with 50 having 1 hand. I still wish they would go after Parker from Miami or Reynolds from rams for another wr. we cant expect Jones to do that every week. we will see, fun year so far. No more injuries please. Just saw that Minny has 1 all year. I want there strength and conditioning coach, they never get them. good to be Lucky too. Now that they saw how to beat Chiefs, they will use cook the same way next week I/m sure, couldn't believe , they didn't go zone more when he went wide out. thanks chiefs d coordinator. Pack should have a lot of fans at L.A. this week, enjoy the season. Pack 24-20, Go Packers

on October 29th, 2019 at 09:42am

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