Packers XLV

Gazing Into the 2011 NFL Crystal Ball

Posted August 29th, 2011 @ 02:08pm

In ten days, the Pack will begin defense of their Super Bowl title against Drew Brees and the Saints. Between now and then we'll see the team cut around 35 guys as Ted Thompson finalizes the 2011 roster. Seems like as good a time as any to make my predictions for the season. Feel free to save this blog and check it out around the first of the year to see how eerily prescient I was.

AFC East

New England   12-4

N.Y. Jets           11-5

Miami               6-10

Buffalo              6-10

The haves and the have nots in the East, where New England will once again reign as the conference's top seed. The Patriots have gotten younger on defense, where they need to improve if they want to start winning games in January. The Jets will continue to win with defense, but may rely a bit more on Mark Sanchez this season, unless Shonn Greene can step up with a big season. The Dolphins have a chance to win a couple more games, but it's all about Chad Henne. The Bills will be improved, but they're a couple years away.

AFC West

San Diego     10-6

Kansas City  9-7

Oakland       8-8

Denver         4-12

The Pack will play everyone in this division, getting the better two teams on the road and hosting the two weaker teams. Everyone always picks San Diego every year because on paper they look frightening. They led the league in offense and defense last year, but failed to reach the playoffs. That won't happen this time around. With a healthy and hungry Vincent Jackson and improvement from second year running back Ryan Matthews, the Chargers will prove to be the class of the division. The Chiefs are on the way, but will hit a speed bump this season. That said, they're very tough at home and will be a tough game for the Pack. The Raiders and Broncos are also-rans. No way Oakland runs through the division again this year and the Broncos need a lot of defensive help to be taken seriously.

AFC North

Baltimore    11-5

Pittsburgh   11-5

Cleveland    8-8

Cincinnati   3-13

I've got the Ravens winning the tiebreaker and claiming the division. The defense is on its last legs, but will rise up when it matters most. The addition of Lee Evans gives Joe Flacco a downfield threat and Ray Rice will emerge as an MVP candidate. The Steelers will be more of a passing team, but will win with their defense once again, though eams with strong passing games will give them fits. The Browns are on the way up: Colt McCoy has made a lot of progress and will have a new favorite receiver in Greg Little. The Bengals will shake hands with QB Andy Dalton, give him a nice parting gift and begin plans to draft QB Andrew Luck with the first pick in the 2012 draft.

AFC South

Houston        10-6

Indianapolis   9-7

Jacksonville   6-10

Tennessee      5-11

I'm one of those guys who likes the Texans every year, but with the arrival of Wade Phillips to install the 3-4 and run the defense, I think Houston has enough to win this mediocre division. It may take another year or two until the defense is humming, but they'll be improved enough, since the trio of Matt Schaub, Arian Foster and Andre Johnson rivals anyone else's triplets. The shaky status of Peyton Manning and an underwhelming offensive line is enough for me to knock the Colts out of the playoffs. The Jags are weak at QB and the Titans are relying on the aging Matt Hasselbeck and very few legit pass-catching options, not to mention Chris Johnson's holdout.

AFC Playoffs

In the wildcard round, the Steelers head to Houston and The Chargers host the Jets. I've got San Diego and Pittsburgh moving on. I know, it's probably dumb to short-change the Jets, but I think this time Philip Rivers steps up big and does just enough against that tough defense. Pittsburgh moves on to face the Patriots, while San Diego heads to Baltimore. I've got the Patriots and the Ravens in the AFC title game, with New England advancing to Super Bowl XLVI.

NFC West

St. Louis          9-7

Arizona            8-8

San Francisco  5-11

Seattle              4-12

Once again the league's worst division, the NFC West rides the arm of Sam Bradford, who may take a few weeks to get settled in Josh McDaniels' offense, but he leads a nice, young team that has added some offensive weapons and continues to improve on defense. The Cardinals could surprise if Kevin Kolb plays better than I think he will, but they feel like a .500 team. The Niners and Seahawks have serious issues at quarterback and until they get new guys under center, they will not be a factor.

NFC East

Philadelphia   11-5

Dallas               9-7

N.Y. Giants      7-9

Washington    6-10

We've all heard about the dream team and, yes, on papers the Eagles defense looks very impressive. But they do have some warts: their linebackers are pedestrian and their offensive line is very shaky. The latter presents the biggest issue: their inability to protect Michael Vick proved to be the team's undoing at the end of last season. If he's not healthy, it's either Vince Young or Mike Kafka's team. The Eagles are playing in a division that's not as strong as it's been in years past and should prove to be the best team again. The Cowboys, with a healthy Tony Romo, will be improved, but they're thinner at RB and are looking to DC Rob Ryan to rejuvenate a defensive unit that was horrible last season. The Giants take a step back with too many injuries on defense and too few weapons for Eli Manning. The Redskins have looked good in the preseason, but I'm skeptical. They're headed in the right direction, but won't have a lot so show for it this season.

NFC South

New Orleans   11-5

Atlanta             11-5

Tampa Bay       9-7

Carolina           4-12

The NFL's best division will deliver three playoff teams this season, with Tampa Bay winning a tiebreaker over two other teams. I like the moves the Saints have made, beefing up on defense after getting embarrassed in the playoffs in Seattle. The additions to the backfield of Mark Ingram and Darren Sproles give the offense a new dimension and I expect them to take advantage of a weak December schedule to claim the division. The Falcons will be solid once again and the Bucs have added a few nice defensive pieces and will win one less game than last year, but this time they'll sneak in as the sixth seed. The Panthers need to remake their defense under Ron Rivera and will suffer severe growing pains under QB Cam Newton.

NFC North

Packers       12-4

Detroit        9-7

Chicago       8-8

Minnesota  6-10

The Packers are the class of this division; they will be in fewer close games and will be hungry to gain the NFC's top seed, so the road to Indy goes through Lambeau. I've got all four losses coming on the road: at San Diego, at Kansas City, at Atlanta and at Detroit on Thanksgiving Day. Detroit is for real, with the best defensive line in football and the real deal in QB Matt Stafford. The bet here is he stays healthy to guide the Lions to a winning season, falling just short of the playoffs. The Bears step back a bit, thanks to a weak offensive line and a defense that starts to show its age. The Vikings have too many holes on offense and defense to be a factor. The secondary may be the worst in football, not good in a division that boasts Rodgers, Stafford and Cutler.

NFC Playoffs

Atlanta goes to St. Louis and Tampa Bay heads to the Superdome to play the Saints in the wildcard round. I have the Falcons moving on to play the Pack and the Saints advancing to meet the Eagles. Green Bay gets revenge for its regular season loss at the Georgia Dome and knocks out the Birds for a second straight year, while the Saints go into Philly and upset the Eagles. The NFC playoffs end the way the NFL season opened, with the Saints falling to the Packers at Lambeau. Green Bay advances to Super Bowl XLVI to meet the Patriots in a rematch of the big game 15 years earlier, when Desmond, Brett and Reggie brought the title home to Titletown.

Packers and Patriots in the Super Bowl. Rodgers vs. Brady. McCarthy vs. Belichick. It's a great matchup and naturally I've got the Pack going back to back, winning the game 31-30 on a Mason Crosby field goal in the closing moments.

The journey begins on Thursday, September 8th. Coming on Wednesday: my fantasy football predictions.

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Comments (13):

Very nice. I got Pack 45 Bolts 28.

on August 30th, 2011 at 08:49pm

A few comments: 1) Brady didn't look good at all vs. the Lions; I wouldn't be surprised if the Jets take the AFCE this year. 2) The Chiefs and Raiders looked awful; the Chargers will be the only AFCW team to get to 8 wins. 3) Agreed that the NFCW will come down to Cardinals and Rams. Kolb has looked pretty good, and improving as he gets more experience with the team & system. I think the Cards could make a late-season push for the division, though.

on August 30th, 2011 at 09:43pm

Dave, what I want to is, did you look at each individual game to get the records just do it by feel? I haven't checked, I'm just wondering if you numbers add up? Every time I do something like this, my numbers don't add.

on August 31st, 2011 at 08:55am

Hey LDF, funny you should ask that. I did add them up afterwards and it was a perfect 258-258, unless I added wrong in my head. I figure I must have nailed this prediction. Headin' to Vegas..... ;)

on August 31st, 2011 at 11:30am

Eli Manning called a pelyars only meeting yesterday for the Giants and I believe it will be effective. Word around the campfire is that the pelyars were all fired up and responded to the meeting.I anticipate a very pissed off Giants team to have a great week of practice and come in and kick our asses like they did in the NFC title game a few years back. Like Plaxico Burress tore Al Harris up time and time again, MM will make no adjustments during the game and as always it will cost us.Furthermore what aren't we being told about Aaron Rodgers? Is anyone else suspicious about this very vague manner in which MM keeps saying, We'll get into that on Wednesday. Something is up and I would not be surprised if AR is not ready to go. I'll be completely blunt a Packer win will shock me and I hope with all my heart I'm wrong and get a massive shock.

on May 18th, 2012 at 03:13pm

Fuck the Bears. I hate them as much or more than the Vikings. And fuck everyone at Total Packers who aessmus that we dislike the Bears less than we dislike the Vikings. Fuck the Lions. Fuck McCarthy. Fuck yourself in the ass. Matter of fact, Fuck everyone. Let's win these last two and then fuck Lovie in his black, gaping asshole in the playoffs. Fuck Jay Cuntler and his diabetic, arm-twitching, cock-worshiping self. Fuck Julius Peppers and his homosexual name. Fuck Devin Hester and the extra ligament which makes him faster. Fuck Ditka and his cum strainer mustache and shitty steakhouse. Fuck the Bears' luck this year. A double wide Fuck Yourself to Gale Sayers. A big gigantic suck my fat beef to Sweetness himself FUCK YOU and your weak liver..couldn't juke that one could ya? Fuck Halas. Fuck Jerry Angelo and his taped-back dick. Fuck Chicago. Fuck the liver spots off of Gregg Olsen's grandmother's cunt. And the biggest fuck you to any Wisconsin native who is a Bears Fan. I only hope that there can be a remake to the movie Brian's Song, with the same plot, but this time about Brian Urlacher. Fuck that clown too. Fuck the motherfucking Bears and deeply and deliberately fuck the mothers of every miserable, pissant, cocksucking Bear Fan. Let's go Jets. Let's Go Packers. We can and will do this. Fuck Eli Manning as well and his perfectly-sculpted male DSLs. And Fuck Tom Coughlin and his translucent old guy skin. Two home games to prove that we've got the flash AND the smash. It's go time, boys. Time to separate out the men from the Bears. Let's channel the greatness of Packer history and make these last two games memorable and then ride the wave into the playoffs. Let's bring these cocksuckers to Lambeau and show them what it means to play football in Wisconsin in December. The time is now. No more fucking around. Go Pack Go.

on May 18th, 2012 at 03:41am

TimDon't get me wrong, I think Big Ben will be an excellent QB in the NFL I bet he might go #1 in the draft over both Eli Manning and Philip Rivers if they had a redo BUTThe steeelrs do not have anyone who can spread the field for him. I'm NOT a Plex fan, he dropped way to many balls to be considered an elite receiver, but the one thing he did do was keep the safeties tied up down the field. That left Ward and Randel EL free to roam underneath. Moving Randel El from the slot to the outside will absolutely kill his productivity (same thing would happen to Branden Stokely in Indy if they were forced to move him outside).Bottom line is defences can stack 8 men in the box against the Steelers running game because they have no fear of any steeelrs getting behind the secondary deep. Hines Ward will avg. 8 yards a catch and the Steelers will have trouble sustaining drives consistantly. That's a tough thing for a second year QB who has huge expectations from a football crazy town (and from himself).The Steelers special teams is excellent. The defence is great against the run, and a little shaky in the secondary which sometimes gets covered up with an above avg. pass rush. This team won't be terrible, but the AFC is sooooo tough this season, I think there's a good chance they miss the playoffs./end boring rant on a team I don't even like that much

on May 18th, 2012 at 10:43am

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on May 20th, 2012 at 04:20am

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on May 20th, 2012 at 04:27am

, the Bears don't look as effin shitty as I thohgut they were.We have all seen how horrific at time management, challenges, and play calling Lovie Smith can be. So, obviously, coaching isn't what won the NFC North. The difference is the fact that Chicago is nearly 100% healthy, whereas the Packers are the complete opposite of that.Chicago winning the division is actually good for the Packers for two reasons. For one, the last game of the year might not mean a whole lot to the Bears, which might make the game easier for the Pack. Secondly, a wildcard means the Packers would likely play the Bears first, then Atlanta in Atlanta. The NFC North winner on the other hand is likely to face either the Packers or the Giants at home, then go to Philly, then likely to Atlanta or New Orleans. Good luck with that route.

on May 20th, 2012 at 06:16am

This blog is definitely something I have been looking for.

on May 8th, 2012 at 04:49pm

I landed on this site by mistake, but was compelled to see this share! I'll be back! Thanks!

on May 9th, 2012 at 06:09pm

Mr. Head Cheese Sir, I'll go along with you on the majority of your picks, but I'll respectfully disagree with you on this - I'm thinking the Eagles are going to be this years 2010 Cowboys - talented but disfunctional. Can all those free agents really get it together? Maybe on paper... :-) Let's go for #14!!

on September 3rd, 2011 at 08:42pm

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