Packer Musings One Month into the Offseason

Posted February 22nd, 2015 @ 03:02pm

Greetings fellow Packer backers, thanks for hanging in there and checking back in to the blog. As some of you may know, I generally take a month off after the season, in part to go through the seven stages of acceptance when a season ends; in part because my day job has me on the road for much of January and February.

So let's catch up on what has happened since the epic meltdown in Seattle. The headlines: McCarthy gives up play calling duties, Slocum fired; Zook replaces him, Bostick banished to Vikings, Brad Jones mercifully released (and presumably headed to the Vikings) and most importantly, Pack looks to hang on to free agents.

Let's take them in that order. McCarthy's (or Thompson's or Murphy's) surprising decision   can be seen as a great next step in the development of a championship-caliber team, or a tremendous gamble. With McCarthy calling the plays, the Packers have always been near the top of the league offensively, finishing #1 last season. He and Aaron Rodgers are mostly always in sync and McCarthy generally has known the right buttons to push: when to be aggressive and when to back off. His uncharacteristically conservative approach in Seattle was stunning and likely signaled this change.

I think it's a positive move for the Pack. McCarthy has generally been lousy with the challenge flag and with other seat-of-his-pants in-game decisions. Handing the play calling to Tom Clements will allow him to be on top of all aspects of the game and should make for better-informed decisions. Clements has done it before and has been around long enough that I think the offense will continue to hum next season.

The change at special teams was a no brainer. Once again, the unit finished at the bottom of the league standings and its two key meltdowns against the Seahawks (fake field goal and on side kick) cost the team a ticket to Super Bowl XLIX. Slocum is the fall guy and replacement-in-waiting Ron Zook takes over. I don't understand why your assistant special teams coach, who had as much to do with the unit's meltdown as his boss did, gets promoted while Slocum is out of work. But clearly McCarthy and Zook go way back and he wants to give him a shot to run things his way. First rumblings we're hearing is to expect more starters on the unit, a big-time gamble if I've ever heard one.

The release of Brandon Bostick was also not a surprise. The athletic, talented, yet oft-injured tight end wore the goat horns after the Seattle game, but that in and of itself didn't get him cut. He was injured early and was unable to crack the game day lineup most weeks. With young Richard Rodgers and Andrew Quarless ahead of him and the team likely looking to add another in the draft, it was time to move on. Not to mention, it would have been tough to regain the trust of his teammates and coaches.

Which brings us to the free agents. I will write a more detailed look at free agency later in the week, but here are the highlights: Thompson must and will resign the #1 priority: Randall Cobb. Thompson rarely loses out on signing his draftees to their second contract. It's been reported Cobb is seeking a deal that averages $9 million a year, or the same deal Greg Jennings got form the Vikings a few years back. Cobb's unique talents make him virtually irreplaceable in the offense and his healthy 2014 campaign has earned hum the big bucks. I'll be shocked if the two sides don't agree on a new deal.

I think it's likely Bryan Bulaga is re-signed as well. The Pack's offensive line was a revelation last season and keeping them together is hugely important. Bulge's injury history is obviously a concern, but unless you believe Don Barclay is ready to step in, there isn't an obvious replacement on the roster or in free agency.

The interesting decisions will be which corner to try to hang onto and which QB to bring back (likely Tolzien over Flynn). What about BJ Raji or Leroy Guion (who may have cost himself millions). And what about all pro and fan favorite John Kuhn?

After hitting a home run with the Julius Peppers signing, will Thompson again look outside the organization for some help. I've seen a report that has Cowboy linebacker Bruce Carter in the Packers' sights to replace the soon-to-be-cut AJ Hawk--that seems like a stretch, based on Thompson's history. But we all know this team as built right now is equipped to compete for a Super Bowl title. A key tweak here and there could make a huge difference.

And the decisions Thompson makes in the next 75 days will shape their chances in earning a ticket to Levi's Stadium next February.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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What Do You Write When You Have No Words?

Posted January 19th, 2015 @ 03:01am

4th and 26th sounds pretty good right about now.

It takes quite a bit to render me speechless. It took me three hours to even look at my laptop and then another 3o minutes before I could bring myself to start tapping the keys. What we witnessed over the last 5:04 of the NFC title game will stay with us always. We finally have our own Gary Anderson game, our own Favre pick against the Saints.

And ours is miles worse. This collapse, the biggest in NFL playoff history, had several 'shake your head in disbelief' moments. Brandon Bostick wears the goat horns for swinging and missing on the onside kickoff, but there was plenty of blame to go around.

We can blame Morgan Burnett for not returning Russell Wilson's pick--heading to the ground and passing up plenty of free yards in front of him (though I had no problem with that decision--the last thing we needed was the ball getting punched out and Seattle getting it back).

We can blame Mike McCarthy for ultra conservative play calling down the stretch. The running game had no chance against a suddenly feisty Seahawks run defense that knew what was coming.

We can blame Ha Ha Clinton Dix, who played an otherwise fantastic game, for his incomprehensible miss on Wilson on the two point conversion play. This is the play I keep playing over in my head. If he finishes the play, the lead is one and Rodgers is ready to lead the team down the field for a game winning field goal. That's how this one was supposed to end. With a boot by the perfect Mason Crosby to send the Pack to its sixth Super Bowl.

Instead, we will think about what cost the team on this day; the same problems we've been dealing with all season. It starts with special teams. As dependable as Crosby was on this day, the special teams gave up seven blocked kicks or punts in the regular season and gave up two of the biggest plays in this game: the fake field goal that put the 'Hawks first points on the board and the botched recovery of the onside kick.

The team was troubled in the red zone all season. When you settle for field goals at Lambeau (like they did against the Patriots), you can escape. When you settle for field goals against a team like Seattle at their place, you're playing with fire. When two first half drives stalled at the one, and McCarthy didn't trust the offense to convert, you had to be worried. I certainly was.

I could go on. But I don't want to. In time we'll remember we have the game's best QB, a young, improving defense and a team that will be in the mix again next season. But until the Pack returns to the Super Bowl, this game will sit in our gut, churning around, and we'll think about what might have been. The Packers choked away their ticket to Super Bowl 49 in epic fashion.

Vikings fans, finally, finally I think we all understand what it's been like for you.  For the first time we feel your pain. And it hurts.

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Sherman Gets the Headlines, but Wilson Will be the Difference on Sunday

Posted January 16th, 2015 @ 03:01pm

Let's face it, the Packers will need to be pitch perfect to advance to their second Super Bowl in the McCarthy-Rodgers era. A hobbled Aaron Rodgers is the only reason I don't think the Pack will be able to spring the upset at Century Link Field.

We may spend a long time replaying that Buffalo game and the close calls that almost went  Green Bay's way, that might have meant a victory and home field advantage. But the NFC Title game is in Seattle and for that reason the Pack is a 7 1/2 point underdog.

So let's start with a few statistics to give you a little hope: the Packers are 2-0 in the playoffs against the Seahawks (including the infamous 'We want the ball and we're gonna score' wildcard game in '03). They're 3-2 in NFC title games, including 2-0 on the road (winning in Chicago en route to SB XLV). Then there's this little nugget: the last four times when both conference championship favorites were favored by 7 or more, one team lost the game outright.

OK, feel a little better? Here's the flip side: the Packers have lost seven straight games to winning teams on the road and they've lost the last seven times they were an underdog.

So, back to reality. We've never seen a more dominant home team than the Seahawks. They're 25-2 at home since '12, winning by an average of 15 points per game. And their defense is on an historic pace, giving up just 6.5 points per game over their last six regular season games.

So here come the Packers, looking a lot different than they did in the opener, when they were unprepared for the noise, the atmosphere and the speed of the 'Hawks' defense, not to mention stopping the run--giving up 207 on the ground. That game featured three rookies on offense for the Pack, most notably Corey Linsley, who was snapping the ball to Rodgers for the first time ever in a game of any kind. Richard Rodgers and Davante Adams were also brand new to this NFL thing--all three have become key, dependable parts of the offense.

Defensively, the Pack has come a long way since the opener as well. The run defense has tightened up significantly and is expected to do a much better job corralling Marshawn Lynch. Keeping tabs on Russell Wilson is an entirely different story. The league's best running QB this season will likely give the Packers fits. He has an uncanny ability to make the proper read, knows when to run, when to slide and when to take his losses and move on to the next play. He has the fewest weapons around him in the league but it doesn't matter because he is so, so good.

Of course he doesn't have Percy Harvin this time around. Harvin put up more than 100 yards on the Pack in the opener. He is also without emerging rookie receiver Paul Richardson, the team's kickoff returner, who injured his knee last week. Wilson's top three receivers are underrated guys and his tight end Luke Willson was a late draft pick. He was Wilson's top target in the win over the Panthers.

The Pack will try to ruffle Wilson by forcing him into rare mistakes and their best chance is with Sunday's birthday boy, Julius Peppers. He was the Pack's defensive star of the game last week and he has a favorable matchup on Sunday against rookie right tackle Justin Britt, who appears in over his head and is dealing with a knee injury.

Like the Packers, the Seahawks rarely give the ball away so the Packers will likely have to rely on the offense to complete long drives and execute in the red zone--which has been a dicey proposition of late. A gimpy Rodgers and a sore-kneed Eddie Lacy makes things a lot tougher, but there are ways to move the ball on the Seahawks.

It starts with running the ball between the tackles. In Seattle's four losses this season, they gave up 132 yards per game on the ground. Green Bay was held to 80 in the opener, but Lacy is a better player and the offensive line is firing much more effectively than they were in the opener. I expect McCarthy to come out throwing and challenge that secondary. Let them know there's no fear and no intimidation this time around.

Much has been made about the Pack's strategy to ignore Richard Sherman's side of the field in the opener. Expect things to change this time around. I wouldn't be surprised to see Davante Adams lined up against Sherman for most of the game (instead of Boykin in week one) and for Rodgers to take some shots. That should also create some favorable opportunities for Nelson and Cobb against corners Byron Maxwell and the shaky Harald Simon (who Cam Newton picked on last week).

If the Pack can mov the ball through the air early, it should open things up for Lacy, who needs to put up at least 125 total yards if the Packers hope to spring the upset. With Rodgers' limited mobility, they need to use Lacy in the screen game and continue to use Cobb as a Harvin-type threat all over the field.

I think this game will be closer than many believe and the Pack will have a chance to spring the upset late. But ultimately, Wilson is the difference. He was perfect on third downs last week (8-8 for 199 with three TDs and no picks) and is just so smart, poised and dangerous that I think he will make a play or two that a limited Rodgers can't match.

Seahawks 27  Packers 24

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Power Rankings

The Baker's Dozen Why 13 and not 10? To celebrate the Pack’s 13 NFL titles, of course. 1/5/14

  1. Seattle (1)
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